Kalshi Weather Agent
Live
Total P&L
$0.00
No trades yet
Win Rate
—
0W - 0L - 0 pending
Active Positions
0
Next settlement: 9:00 AM CT
Return on Investment
—
$0 invested
How the Bot Works
Ensemble forecasting + split timing strategy
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ECMWF IFS
51 members
GFS
31 members
ICON
40 members
122 Forecasts
P(YES) Calculation
Ensemble Model
122 independent weather forecasts from 3 global models
Empirical probability distribution (not just one forecast)
Accounts for model uncertainty and forecast spread
Fallback to calibrated standard deviation if ensemble unavailable
Split Timing Strategy
8:00 PM CT:
Bet on LOW temps for tomorrow (9hrs before overnight low)
9:30 AM CT:
Bet on HIGH temps for today (2-4hrs before afternoon peak)
Reduces exposure time and captures freshest forecasts
$4 budget per run ($8/day total)
Probability Math
Normal distribution centered on NWS forecast
Forecast error SDs calibrated by city and season
Example: Chicago winter = 7°F SD, summer = 4°F SD
Ensemble overrides SD model when 10+ members available
Risk Guardrails
EV threshold:
Only bet when expected value > +5¢
Price range:
15-85¢ (avoid extreme odds)
City limits:
Max 2 bets per city per day
Dedup:
Never bet opposite sides or duplicate tickers
P&L Over Time
Win Rate Trend
All Trades
Run History
Calibration
Date
City
Ticker
Side
Cost
Prob
Source
EV
Result
P&L
Time
Mode
Target Date
Cities
Placed
Skipped
Cost
Date
City
Type
Forecast
Observed
Error
Ensemble